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Adventure Hooks, Red Herrings & the Information Mesh

by Sean Meaney from Threshold Magazine issue 14

ADVENTURE HOOKS, RED HERRINGS & THE INFORMATION MESH

By Sean Meaney

RUMORS are employed in adventures pretty much all the time. Players asking around the village about the nearby Dungeons, Castle, or Temple is a regular aspect of the game as is the movement of rumors across the larger campaign setting.

TABLE 1: RUMORS IN THE VILLAGE OF VERGE
2d6 Rumour
2 A Thief was found nailed to a Tree.
3 Breyark! is a goblin greeting.
4 There is a magic wand lost in the ruins.
5 There is a Statue with ruby eyes.
6 A wizard lives in the caves.
7 There have been murders in the Capital.
8 Farmer Tambo saw a Dragon.
9 There's a giant stone head in the woods.
10 The House across the market is haunted.
11 The village is built on a Dungeon.
12 The Lady of Verge is a witch.


The problem is that not every rumour is true. But why is a rumor true or false. It has to do with not only the intent of the rumor teller, it has to do with the movement of information.

Facts, rumours, and lies are all the same thing: Information. it is the degree of accuracy that separates truth from lie. How does the village of Verge know anything of murders in far off Specularum (Mirros)? Tanis the paper merchant has driven his cart of blank (or bleached) scroll parchment in from Specularum. He also brings with him a tale of an apparent tidal wave of murders. Specularum is a big, crowded place filled with desperate people prepared to kill to survive. The likelihood that the rumor is true is going to be based on the generic nature of the information. Murders happen over a period of time in the big city therefore 'there have been murders in the capital'. Specific knowledge of a particular murder is going to require accuracy of information to which the merchant may or may not have access. How does he know that Davinos was murdered in the street? Is he keeping tabs on murders that may have been committed by the Veiled Society? Is he a member? Is he associated with a rival faction? Has he lazily concluded that one particular murder must represent an occurrence of numerous such murders? The decay of information accuracy is often the result of laziness in the storyteller to impart all the facts or correct assumptions. Thomic the gnome overhears a conversation and imparts a variation on the rumor simply because he fills in the gaps with his own creativity - and 'murders in the capital' becomes a madman on a killing spree. Ultimately it is the charisma of the information source that varies the accuracy of the information.

Basically information accuracy is determined by the distance of the source and the population of the source so is determined by this formula:
Accuracy%=0.24*((Population^10.87)/(Distance^0.4))




VERGE as we know is a village fourteen 8-mile hexes from Specularum. As it sits on the road between Rifflian and Threshold and is Three road hexes from Threshold and four road hexes from Rifflian. There are certainly other places but these two Towns are of immediate interest.

According to Table 2: Populations in Karameikos we have the following relevant populations adjacent to Verge:
1. Threshold (5,000): 24 miles
2. Rifflian (1,700): 32 Miles
So sitting in the Tavern in Verge we can now look at Verge's relationship with various information sources to generate a consistent list of rumors.

Accuracy%=0.24*((Population^0.87)/(Distance^0.4))

We apply this to the various sources supplying the village of Verge:
Threshold%=0.24*((5000^0.87)/(24^0.4))
Rifflian%=0.24*((1700^0.87)/32^0.4))

These provide us with the following information Accuracies:




So we get one rumor from Threshold that is one hundred percent accurate and one that is eleven percent accurate. we also get one rumor from Rifflian that is thirty eight percent accurate.

First off...some colour coding for our rumor table:
Blue: 100% Accurate
Green: more than 50% Accurate
Red: less than 50% Accurate
Purple: less than 10% Accurate



TABLE 4: RUMORS IN THE VILLAGE OF VERGE
2d6 Rumors doing the rounds in Verge
2 A man was found nailed to a tree near Threshold.
3 A giant stone head was discovered in the woods near Threshold (it is a rounded boulder sticking out of the dirt).
4 The Lady of Rifflian is looking for adventurers to catch a dragon (she is interested in being a patron to adventurers).
5 A Farmer saw a Dragon near Threshold.
6 A magic wand was lost in ruins near Threshold.
7 Breyark! is a goblin greeting (Its goblin).
8 There is a statue with ruby eyes above the bar in a Tavern in Rifflian.
9 A wizard lives in the caves.
10 There have been murders in the Capital.
11 The abandoned house across the market is haunted.
12 The village of Verge is built on a Dungeon.



As you can see we have eight remaining slots that will likely fill with rumors from further afield. So let's look at:
3. Kelvin (20,000): 72 Miles
4. Highforge (7,500): 56 miles via Threshold
Because Highforge is not connected by road it sends overland via Threshold
We apply this to these sources supplying the village of Verge:
Kelvin%=0.24*((20000^0.87)/(72^0.4))
Highforge%=0.24*((7500^0.87)/56^0.4))

These provide us with the following information Accuracies:



So we see Kelvin provides Verge with three rumors (two of which are a hundred percent accurate and one which is thirty nine percent accurate). Highforge is a provider of two rumors (one at one hundred percent accuracy and one that is twelve percent accurate.


TABLE 6: RUMORS AVAILABLE IN VERGE MK3
2d6 Rumors doing the rounds in Verge
2 A man was found nailed to a Tree near Threshold.
3 A giant stone head was discovered in the woods near Threshold (it is a rounded boulder sticking out of the dirt).
4 The Lady of Rifflian is looking for Adventurers to catch a dragon (She is interested in being a patron to adventurers).
5 A magic wand was lost in ruins near Kelvin.
6 The City of Kelvin is built on an ancient Dungeon.
7 Drogo the Gnome saw a Red Dragon near Highforge.
8 There is a Statue with ruby eyes above the bar in a Tavern in Kelvin (Its eyes are red glass and it's under the bar).
9 Breyark! is a goblin greeting (not particularly).
10 A wizard lives in the caves.
11 There have been murders in the Capital.
12 The abandoned house across the market is haunted.

As you can see we have three remaining slots that will likely fill with rumors from further afield. So let's look at:
5. Penhaligon (3,750): 128 Miles
6. Specularum (50,000): 112 Miles
7. Rugalov (650): 224 miles
8. Luln (5,000): 200 miles
9. Fort Doom (10,000): 208 miles
10. Vorloi (7,500): 192 miles
11. Marilenev (900): 120 miles
12. Sulescu (950): 160 miles
13. Dmitrov (6,500): 184 miles
14. Vandevicsny (100): 184 miles
We apply this to these sources supplying the village of Verge:
Penhaligon%=0.24*((3,750^0.87)/(128^0.4))
Specularum%=0.24*((50,000^0.87)/(112^0.4))
Rugalov%=0.24*((650^0.87)/(224^0.4))
Luln%=0.24*((5,000^0.87)/(200^0.4))
Fort Doom%=0.24*((10,000^0.87)/(208^0.4))
Marilenev%=0.24*((900^0.87)/(120^0.4))
Sulescu%=0.24*((950^0.87)/(160^0.4))
Vorloi%=0.24*((7500^0.87)/(192^0.4))
Dmitrov%=(0.24*((6500^0.87)/(184^0.4)))
Vandevicsny%=(0.24*((100^0.87)/(184^0.4)))

These provide us with the following information Accuracies:





That means Specularum provides us with four good rumors and a low accuracy rumor. The remaining communities provide us with seven moor rumors of poor accuracy.






So now we have twenty-two rumor slots. This is good for a 20+ Slot Rumor chart.


TABLE 9: RUMORS IN THE VILLAGE OF VERGE
3d8 Rumors doing the rounds in Verge
3 A man was found nailed to a Tree near Threshold.
4 A giant stone head was discovered in the woods near Threshold (it's a rounded boulder sticking out of the dirt).
5 The Lady of Rifflian is looking for Adventurers to catch a dragon (She is interested in being a patron to adventurers).
6 A magic wand was lost in ruins near Kelvin.
7 The town of Kelvin is built on a Dungeon.
8 Drogo the gnome saw a Dragon near Highforge.
9 There is a Statue with ruby eyes above the bar in a Tavern in Kelvin (Its eyes are red glass and it is under the bar).
10 Breyark! is a goblin greeting (Highforge Dwarves made that rumor up for a laugh).
11 A Serial Killer has been stalking women at night in the streets of Specularum.
12 Duchess Olivia's Favourite colour is purple.
13 A Serial Arsonist has been setting fire to homes in the Nest.
14 A Ylari murdered a member of the King's Guard in Specularum.
15 The old boarded up house overlooking the Great Market in Specularum is haunted (Its an observation post used by the Secret Police and they arrest intruders).
16 A Wizard lives in the caves in the Wulfwold hills east of Penhaligon (Its a Kobold).
17 The Lord of Sulescu is afflicted with Vampirism ( The Lord of Rugalov fell ill a month back and has been anemic).
18 The town of Luln is filled with Traladaran Rebels (there are a few who want to topple Baron Blackeagle)
19 Bargle the Wizard is hiding out in Fort Doom (He is Magist to Baron Blackeagle).
20 The kingdom is preparing for war. Baron Vorloi is building warships (new ones were needed).
21 Traladaran Rebels are growing wolfsbane to poison Specularum's water (Lady Marilenev's gardener was exposed to Wolfsbane while pulling weeds almost a month ago and died horribly).
22 Vampire Lord Sulescu is enslaving the peasants (This Nosferatu is happy to pay well for the labour of his farmers).
23 A ship has wrecked on the beach off Dmitrov (an old warship has been beached for salvage).
24 Bargle the Wizard was seen summoning flying demons to attack Luln (an old crypt was opened a few weeks back for repair in Vandevicsny releasing bats).


RUMORS FLY
There is of course a real distance at which information accuracy drops below a hundred percent.
So let's build a different set of data based on a variation of our formula, this one looking for distance:

Distance=(0.4root((Population^0.87)/(Accuracy%/0.24)))

So for each community we now look for distance at 100%, 50%, and 10%. This provides us with something we can then map.

Community
Distance=(0.4root((Population^0.87)/(100/0.24)))
Distance=(0.4root((Population^0.87)/(50/0.24)))
Distance=(0.4root((Population^0.87)/(10/0.24)))




MAP 1: INFORMATION DISTANCE IN THE GRAND DUCHY OF KARAMEIKOS


http://pandius.com/DingosMap.png


http://pandius.com/information_range-karameikos.jpg

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN KARAMEIKOS?
Given a hex is basically four miles in radius rumors struggle to exit communities like Sulescu, Marilenev, Rugalov, Verge, Rifflian without being greatly reduced in accuracy. In Vandevicsny Rumor Accuracy is below ten percent before it even leaves the periphery of the village.



1This symbol stands for Exponent: you can find algebra calculators online such as this one: https://www.mathpapa.com/algebra-calculator.html